£35 billion extra: what would it pay for? TALLYCAT01 / Evidence over influence Original Instagram publication: 12 October 2026 Website publication: 12 October 2026 Evidence checked: 12 October 2026 £35 billion is the extra amount in one IFS example for the single year 2030/31. It would fund more defence and health spending, protect other departments’ buying power and cover higher pay costs and savings falling short. An explanation of one supported numerical scenario. This is an analysis format, not a finding that IFS or the government spread misinformation or deliberately deceived anyone. Research checked 12 October 2026. Own explanation and calculations from attributed published inputs. The complete IFS model was not independently replicated. Original research and source extracts are preserved privately; the public downloads contain only selected factual inputs and our arithmetic. SOURCES IFS / Public service spending: plans and pressures Institute for Fiscal Studies https://ifs.org.uk/publications/public-service-spending-plans-and-pressures Figure 6.11 rounded components and overlap notes; Figure 6.10 growth rates; Figures 6.6 and 6.9 and Tables 6.1 and 6.2 for context Opened and checked in the preserved 12 October 2026 investigation; not an independently reproduced underlying model HMT / Spending Review 2025, Table 5.6 HM Treasury https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/spending-review-2025-document/spending-review-2025-html Original cash health settlement and adjusted published real-growth rate Opened and checked in the preserved 12 October 2026 investigation; not an independently reproduced underlying model ONS / Public service productivity, quarterly, UK: January to March 2026 Office for National Statistics https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/economicoutputandproductivity/publicservicesproductivity/bulletins/publicserviceproductivityquarterlyuk/januarytomarch2026 Tables 1 and 3, revision and uncertainty in public-service productivity Opened and checked in the preserved 12 October 2026 investigation; not an independently reproduced underlying model OBR / Economic and fiscal outlook: March 2026 Office for Budget Responsibility https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/69a6d7b62e1f4fbda4252208/economic-and-fiscal-outlook-march-2026-web-accessible.pdf Chapter 5 fiscal tests; supporting spending definitions and forecast assumptions Opened and checked in the preserved 12 October 2026 investigation; not an independently reproduced underlying model FISC / Spending pressures, not fiscal headroom, are the Chancellor’s key Budget challenge Institute for Fiscal Studies https://ifs.org.uk/news/spending-pressures-not-fiscal-headroom-are-chancellors-key-budget-challenge Separate pre-policy fiscal assessment and its uncertainty Opened and checked in the preserved 12 October 2026 investigation; not an independently reproduced underlying model DATE / Budget date confirmation HM Treasury https://www.gov.uk/government/news/budget-to-move-power-and-money-out-of-westminster-and-into-every-postcode-around-britain Confirms 28 October 2026 Budget date Opened and checked in the preserved 12 October 2026 investigation; not an independently reproduced underlying model IMAGE CREDIT Rachel Reeves with the Budget box outside 11 Downing Street Simon Dawson / No 10 Downing Street, Crown copyright https://www.flickr.com/photos/ukgov/54947859269/ CC BY 4.0 https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ Archive context only Research and production assisted by AI