Almost 2 million foreign nationals received UK benefits or pensions in 2025: who is counted?
Reproduce this investigation

Check the original claim, keep the 2025 estimate separate from the April 2026 official comparison, and then repeat the arithmetic using the same rows on both sides.

Tools: A browser, PDF reader and spreadsheet app that opens ODS and CSV files, such as LibreOffice Calc or Microsoft Excel

Limits: The complete CSJ model is unavailable, so this route reproduces the published model ratios and the separate official table calculations, not CSJ’s full unique-recipient estimate. Instagram may require sign-in. The selected-figures CSV contains public aggregate figures only, not personal records.

1. Read the actual post before interpreting it
Open Woodhouse’s original post. Read the headline and full author caption, including the 1.3 million and 745,000 lines and the closing “Deport them”. Separate her words from reader comments. Record 15 October 2026 as the post date.
Original Woodhouse post: https://www.instagram.com/officialsammyuk/p/DegvGhfgsCL/
Note: The full Daily Mail article was not recovered. The photo screenshot is claim evidence, not a licensed new illustration for redistribution.

2. Identify what the 2025 estimate includes
Read the CSJ announcement’s opening, Notes to editors and Table 1. Find 1.85 million estimated adults and 400,000 estimated State Pension recipients for 2025. Check the stated allowance for overlapping benefits and household adults. In the report, inspect PDF pages 191 to 192, printed pages 189 to 190.
CSJ announcement and model notes: https://www.centreforsocialjustice.org.uk/newsroom/revealed-almost-two-million-foreign-nationals-receiving-benefits-or-state-pension
CSJ report, PDF page 191: https://www.centreforsocialjustice.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/CSJ-State_of_Dependency.pdf#page=191
Note: The published explanation does not provide the complete underlying model. Do not sum overlapping caseloads into a new unique-person total.

3. Open the correct official workbook and month
Download the official ODS. Check Contents for the 18 August 2026 release. Open Table_2. Confirm F8:I8 says April 2026 and read employment headings F10:I10. Row 12 is the combined CTA / UK, Ireland, Right of Abode group. Rows 13 to 31 contain the other status and nationality rows, including other or unknown records.
Original DWP workbook · ODS: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a82c17492ec93e1e0329a46/uc-immigration-status-nationality-statistics-to-may-2026.ods
Official definitions: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/universal-credit-statistics-background-information-and-methodology/universal-credit-statistics-background-information-and-methodology
Note: Our preserved original has SHA-256 22c9f2f3aa448af7f5ea4458cb2286e494a79f69ac31a7fa0b7381e86d2f29e4. A future download can differ after revision. Keep the original notes and do not substitute Table_1 totals.

4. Calculate the matching Universal Credit total
In a new spreadsheet cell, sum Table_2 F12:I31. Expect 8,316,509 people. Then sum F13:I31. Expect 1,287,180 people outside the combined row-12 group. Divide the second result by the first and multiply by 100.
Official workbook: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a82c17492ec93e1e0329a46/uc-immigration-status-nationality-statistics-to-may-2026.ods
Calculation: SUM(F13:I31) / SUM(F12:I31) × 100 = 1,287,180 / 8,316,509 × 100 = 15.4774%, about 15.5%
Note: Both numbers are people/status counts for the same table, geography and month. The result is not a citizenship census or the share for the full CSJ 2025 estimate.

5. Calculate recorded employment within the same subgroup
Sum G13:I31 in Table_2. Expect 634,761 people. Those three columns cover PAYE employment only, self-employment only and both. Divide by the same 1,287,180 subgroup total. Do not include F in the employment numerator.
Official workbook: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a82c17492ec93e1e0329a46/uc-immigration-status-nationality-statistics-to-may-2026.ods
Employment definitions: https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/universal-credit-statistics-background-information-and-methodology/universal-credit-statistics-background-information-and-methodology#employment
Calculation: SUM(G13:I31) / SUM(F13:I31) × 100 = 634,761 / 1,287,180 × 100 = 49.3141%, about half
Note: Self-employment classification is based on a reporting requirement, not proof of positive earnings. The result is about half of the defined subgroup, not half of all Universal Credit claimants.

6. Check the pension comparison within CSJ’s own model
Divide the announcement’s estimated 400,000 pension recipients by its estimated 1,850,000 adult recipients. Read the National Insurance guidance and parliamentary answer separately to understand why pension eligibility is not the same question as nationality.
CSJ estimate: https://www.centreforsocialjustice.org.uk/newsroom/revealed-almost-two-million-foreign-nationals-receiving-benefits-or-state-pension
Pension eligibility: https://www.gov.uk/new-state-pension/eligibility
DWP parliamentary answer: https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2026-01-26/108263
Calculation: 400,000 / 1,850,000 × 100 = 21.6216%, approximately one in five
Note: This is a ratio of rounded model outputs. It is not the share of all UK pensioners, nor independent verification of CSJ’s model.

7. Trace the caption’s 745,000 line without mixing dates
In Table_1, D8 identifies May 2026. D11 gives 744,679 for the EU Settlement Scheme. Round to the nearest thousand to obtain 745,000. Then read the settlement-scheme guidance on family members and later joiners.
Official workbook: https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/6a82c17492ec93e1e0329a46/uc-immigration-status-nationality-statistics-to-may-2026.ods
EU Settlement Scheme eligibility: https://www.gov.uk/settled-status-eu-citizens-families/eligibility
Calculation: 744,679 rounded to the nearest 1,000 = 745,000
Note: This is a separate May status count. It does not establish that every person is European or has lived continuously in the UK since Brexit. Do not combine May numerators with April employment denominators.

8. Write the conclusion and preserve the missing denominator
Record what each count measures, its period and population. State that no compatible all-recipient total for CSJ’s entire 2025 basket was recovered. Keep the Universal Credit context separate and avoid claims about individual joblessness, unlawful residence, fraud or net tax contribution.
CSJ estimate: https://www.centreforsocialjustice.org.uk/newsroom/revealed-almost-two-million-foreign-nationals-receiving-benefits-or-state-pension
Universal Credit eligibility: https://www.gov.uk/universal-credit/eligibility
Note: The existing CSJ model enquiry remains unsent. No new enquiry or automatic watch has been created. The workbook’s next listed release is 17 November 2026; that release alone cannot validate the full model.