£23bn in benefits for foreign nationals: what is inside the estimate?
REPRODUCE THIS INVESTIGATION

Follow these steps to check the displayed sum and the meaning of its main source. They do not reconstruct CSJ’s complete model, because the full workings are missing.
You will need: A web browser and PDF reader; a calculator or spreadsheet app for the small downloadable breakdown

ACCESS AND DATA LIMITS
The source PDFs are linked at their publishers, not redistributed here. The DWP response is reproduced by CMC, and begins on PDF page 6. The preserved CSJ version was retrieved on 15 October 2026; the file at its public URL may change. Our downloads transcribe selected published figures, not individual records or the underlying model.

WORKING FILES
Source notes: https://tallycat01.com/downloads/benefits-23-billion-what-the-estimate-includes-source-notes.txt
Timeline: https://tallycat01.com/downloads/benefits-23-billion-what-the-estimate-includes-timeline.csv

1. Find the original claim
Open CSJ’s 14 October announcement. Read the spending paragraph, Notes to editors and Table 1. Record the 2025 components and the definitions of the adult count and child support.
Keep in mind: The source itself discloses pensions, child support and modelling. Do not treat those as hidden categories.
CSJ announcement: https://www.centreforsocialjustice.org.uk/newsroom/revealed-almost-two-million-foreign-nationals-receiving-benefits-or-state-pension

2. Check the headline sum
Open the downloadable breakdown CSV. The rows are CSJ’s published rounded amounts in billions of pounds for 2025. Add the first three amounts.
14.3 + 2.9 + 5.8 = 23.0 billion pounds
Keep in mind: This verifies the displayed addition, not the input estimates or the complete model. Do not add the Total row a second time.
Compare with the report, PDF page 192: https://www.centreforsocialjustice.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/CSJ-State_of_Dependency.pdf#page=192

3. Read the household definition before the UC total
Open the 12-page CMC briefing. Skip the first five pages of commentary. Read DWP’s introduction on PDF pages 6 and 7, then Table 1’s annual 2025 row on PDF page 8. It reports £11,920 million for whole qualifying household awards in Great Britain. Read the definition and notes on PDF pages 10 and 11.
11,920 million pounds / 1,000 = 11.920 billion pounds; rounded to one decimal place = 11.9 billion pounds
Keep in mind: The qualifying claimant is neither British nor Irish. The household can include an eligible British partner. The overlapping nationality and work-status columns must not be added.
DWP response reproduced by CMC, PDF page 6: https://www.centreformigrationcontrol.com/airo-assets/uploads/research-pdfs/1789944912332-e2d35adf5328.pdf#page=6

4. Locate the mixed-household adjustment
Read printed page 189 of State of Dependency, which is PDF page 191. It says estimated expenditure is halved for mixed households. Compare that with the £11.9bn UC row in the announcement and the full-household FOI total.
Keep in mind: The public material does not show enough intermediate calculations to reconcile the adjustment. Record this as an unanswered question, not a proven overcount.
CSJ methods, PDF page 191: https://www.centreforsocialjustice.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/CSJ-State_of_Dependency.pdf#page=191
CSJ announcement: https://www.centreforsocialjustice.org.uk/newsroom/revealed-almost-two-million-foreign-nationals-receiving-benefits-or-state-pension

5. Keep the people count separate from the spending total
Read Notes to editors on the announcement. The 1.85m adult count excludes the specified child-related categories, but £23bn includes those expenditures. Check these coverage notes before attempting any average.
Keep in mind: £23bn divided by 1.85m is not an observed average paid to each counted adult.
Read the coverage notes: https://www.centreforsocialjustice.org.uk/newsroom/revealed-almost-two-million-foreign-nationals-receiving-benefits-or-state-pension

6. Record what cannot yet be reproduced
A complete model check needs the input tables, survey vintage and weights, population construction, overlap rules, household allocation, benefit-specific amounts and geographic coverage. Without them, stop at the narrower findings above.
Keep in mind: No enquiry has been sent. If the workings arrive later, repeat the calculations and assess uncertainty before changing the finding.
Full CSJ report: https://www.centreforsocialjustice.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2026/10/CSJ-State_of_Dependency.pdf

ADDITIONAL WORKING FILES
Headline breakdown · CSV: https://tallycat01.com/downloads/benefits-23-billion-what-the-estimate-includes-breakdown.csv
Calculation and limits · JSON: https://tallycat01.com/downloads/benefits-23-billion-what-the-estimate-includes-calculations.json

Evidence checked: 15 October 2026
Research and production assisted by AI