EU MEMBERSHIP PAYMENT SCENARIOS: LIMITED ARITHMETIC
Published article: https://tallycat01.com/investigations/eu-membership-41-billion-what-the-estimate-counts/ (website publication: 2026-10-17).
Evidence checked for this article: 16 October 2026

These are derived checks on rounded values reported by GB News, not the Bow
Group model or an independently verified membership-cost forecast.
Reported annual gross 2028 scenarios in GBP billion: lower 28; central 34; upper 41.
The visible chart assumes no old membership rebate. Gross is before EU receipts.
Original source: https://www.gbnews.com/politics/brexit-u-turn-staggering-price-rejoining-eu-cost-british-taxpayers-revealed
Original model/workbook: not recovered. Price basis and actual currency method
are unverified. There is no established net 2028 payment or probability range.

ARITHMETIC
Upper minus central = 41 - 34 = 7 GBP billion.
Upper above central = (41 - 34) / 34 * 100 = 20.58823529411765 percent.
Rounded to one decimal place: 20.6 percent. Inputs were already rounded.
Upper minus lower = 41 - 28 = 13 GBP billion.
No confidence level, population denominator, GDP share or household cost is inferred.

HISTORICAL DEFINITION EXAMPLE ONLY
Treasury EU Finances Statement 2020, Table 3.A, PDF page 16 / printed page 12.
Select 2019 outturn, calendar-year cash GBP million:
18,946 before rebate - 4,516 rebate = 14,430 after rebate.
14,430 after rebate - 5,022 public receipts = 9,408 net public contribution.
Divide each by 1,000 for GBP billion. Public receipts omit direct EU payments
to private recipients. The rebate reduced the payment before it was made.
The adjacent 2020 column is estimated. Its published net is 12,583; rounded
component subtraction gives 12,582. Retain the published net and rounding note.
Neither old column is a matched comparison with a gross 2028 scenario.
https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1005905/210706_FINAL_European_Union_Finances_Statement_2020.pdf

PROPOSED BUDGET UNITS
COM(2025)571 ANNEX, PDF page 3 / printed page 1, current prices, EUR million:
2028 commitments 269,463 / 1,000 = EUR269.463bn.
2028 payments 269,964 / 1,000 = EUR269.964bn.
These are EU-27 framework ceilings, not UK payments. Do not mix current and
2025 prices, commitments and payments, or 2025 proposals and 2026 forecasts.
https://data.consilium.europa.eu/doc/document/ST-11691-2025-ADD-1/en/pdf

Limits and next update: original model verification is unresolved. Source
enquiries are prepared and unsent. No reply deadline or automatic watch exists.
Research and production assisted by AI. No source photographs are distributed.