{
  "case_id": "TC26-1009-POL-02",
  "input": "candidate_votes.csv",
  "denominator": "Sum of all candidate votes in each Camden results table. Excludes rejected ballots and non-voters.",
  "elections": {
    "2024": {
      "election_date": "2024-07-04",
      "candidate_rows": 12,
      "valid_candidate_votes": 38602,
      "green_candidate": "Stansell, David Robert",
      "green_votes": 4030,
      "green_share_percent": 10.439873581679706,
      "green_share_percent_decimal": "10.439873581679705714729806745764",
      "green_share_display_2dp": "10.44%",
      "share_formula": "4030/38602*100",
      "source_url": "https://news.camden.gov.uk/general-election-results/",
      "source_table": "Election results for Holborn and St Pancras constituency"
    },
    "2026": {
      "election_date": "2026-10-08",
      "candidate_rows": 15,
      "valid_candidate_votes": 27211,
      "green_candidate": "Polanski, Zack",
      "green_votes": 8928,
      "green_share_percent": 32.810260556392635,
      "green_share_percent_decimal": "32.810260556392635331299841975672",
      "green_share_display_2dp": "32.81%",
      "share_formula": "8928/27211*100",
      "source_url": "https://www.camden.gov.uk/holborn-and-st-pancras-by-election-2026-results",
      "source_table": "Election results for Holborn and St Pancras constituency"
    }
  },
  "comparison": {
    "green_votes_change": 4898,
    "green_votes_change_percent": 121.53846153846153,
    "green_votes_multiple": 2.2153846153846155,
    "share_change_percentage_points": 22.37038697471293,
    "share_change_display_2dp": "22.37 percentage points",
    "share_multiple": 3.1427833200939665,
    "share_relative_increase_percent": 214.27833200939665,
    "valid_candidate_votes_change": -11391,
    "valid_candidate_votes_change_percent": -29.5088337391845,
    "votes_per_100_display_1dp": [
      "10.4",
      "32.8"
    ]
  },
  "turnout_audit": {
    "status": "Do not use reported turnout to compute candidate vote share. Council and Parliament reported turnout differ; full reconciliation remains unresolved.",
    "2026": {
      "camden_reported_percent": 38.76,
      "camden_rejected_ballots": 108,
      "parliament_reported_percent": 38.6,
      "parliament_electorate": 70449,
      "valid_votes_divided_by_parliament_electorate_percent": 38.62510468565913,
      "valid_plus_rejected_divided_by_parliament_electorate_percent": 38.778407074621356,
      "parliament_source": "https://members.parliament.uk/constituency/4105/election/560",
      "interpretation": "Parliament's displayed turnout matches valid votes/electorate rounded to 1 decimal. Including 108 rejected ballots with the same electorate rounds to 38.78%, not Camden's 38.76%. Camden electorate/turnout denominator was not recovered, so the difference cannot be conclusively reconciled."
    },
    "2024": {
      "camden_reported_percent": 54.46,
      "parliament_reported_percent": 54.1,
      "parliament_electorate": 71300,
      "valid_votes_divided_by_parliament_electorate_percent": 54.140252454417954,
      "parliament_source": "https://members.parliament.uk/constituency/4105/election/422",
      "interpretation": "Parliament's displayed turnout matches valid votes/electorate rounded to 1 decimal. This review did not recover the 2024 rejected-ballot total or Camden turnout denominator."
    }
  },
  "geography": {
    "status": "Both results belong to Parliament constituency ID 4105, whose election history starts with the 2024 boundary revision.",
    "source": "https://members.parliament.uk/constituency/4105/election-history",
    "boundary_geometry_comparison": "No GIS overlay performed. Parliament's constituency history establishes the same post-2024 constituency for these elections."
  },
  "limits": [
    "Party comparison across different candidates and different election types.",
    "Counts do not identify voter transfers or motives.",
    "2024 Andrew Feinstein votes are not automatically Green votes.",
    "No inference about national support or deliberate deception."
  ]
}