43% of all crime? We could not verify that claim
REPRODUCE THIS INVESTIGATION

Start with the original caption, then repeat the table checks and calculations. The manual route needs no coding. The optional package also reruns the data checks offline.
You will need: A browser, a calculator and Excel, LibreOffice Calc or another CSV reader. For the optional automated check, Python 3 with its standard library. Download the raw totals, selected rows and method above; the ZIP contains the original data and verification recipe.

ACCESS AND DATA LIMITS
You can reproduce the recovered 2024 table shares, census shares and Ministry report arithmetic. You cannot recover the creator's unidentified source, independently verify untranscribed speech, infer all crimes from these entries or estimate a matched resident rate. Current source endpoints may change; the preserved downloads fix the version used here. Earlier reporting and the newer Ferragosto dossier had access limits.

WORKING FILES
Source notes: https://tallycat01.com/downloads/italy-crime-what-the-numbers-count-source-notes.txt
Timeline: https://tallycat01.com/downloads/italy-crime-what-the-numbers-count-timeline.csv

1. Check the original claim and its scope
Open the original Instagram post and read the written caption. Record the four claims: 9% population, 43% all crime, 60% robberies and 69% pickpocketing. Continue to the room analogy, where the wording becomes street robberies. The preserved timestamp is 8 October 2026 at 16:08:59 UTC. Look for a named source or year; neither was supplied in the verified caption.
Keep in mind: If Instagram is unavailable, mark this step as not independently repeated. Do not treat the article's paraphrase as a transcript of the speech.
Original written caption: https://www.instagram.com/meeswynants/reel/DePUnp7DptC/

2. Open the raw Istat data and select the national totals
Download the preserved original totals CSV and import it using UTF-8 and comma separators. Keep the header row. Apply filters in this order: FREQ = A (annual), REF_AREA = IT (Italy), DATA_TYPE = OFFEND, TIME_PERIOD = 2024, SEX = 9 (all sexes), AGE = TOTAL, COUNTRY_CITIZEN = WORLD. Then keep CITIZENSHIP = FRG or TOTAL. The field OBS_VALUE supplies the counts. Select one offence at a time in TYPE_CRIME.
Keep in mind: The live endpoint needs an Accept: text/csv request header for CSV; an ordinary browser may display XML. The preserved copy avoids that technical step. Do not add country rows to WORLD or sum different offence categories.
Download the preserved raw totals: https://tallycat01.com/downloads/italy-crime-what-the-numbers-count-raw-totals.csv
Official data endpoint: https://esploradati.istat.it/SDMXWS/rest/data/IT1,73_230,1.0/A.IT.OFFEND..9.TOTAL..?startPeriod=2024&endPeriod=2025
Official service instructions: https://www.istat.it/classificazioni-e-strumenti/web-services-sdmx/

3. Recalculate the street-robbery and pickpocketing shares
In TYPE_CRIME, select STREETROB. Read 6948 for FRG and 11571 for TOTAL. Divide the first by the second and multiply by 100. Repeat for PICKTHEF, which gives 5057 and 7257. The selected-rows CSV is a small subset you can compare against the raw source. In a spreadsheet, enter the formulas in General or Number format, not Percentage format.
Street robbery: =6948/11571*100 = 60.046668%
Pickpocketing: =5057/7257*100 = 69.684443%
Keep in mind: Round only the final result: 60.0% and 69.7% to one decimal, or 60% and 70% to whole percentages. These are shares of presumed-offender entries, not unique people or crime incidents.
Download the selected rows: https://tallycat01.com/downloads/italy-crime-what-the-numbers-count-selected-rows.csv

4. Check the category behind each comparison
Repeat the same filters with ROBBER (all robbery): FRG 12073 and TOTAL 23058. Then select RAPE (sexual violence): FRG 2783 and TOTAL 6360. Open the earlier Remix article and inspect what its 43% describes. It concerns sexual offences. That reporting resemblance is not proof of the creator's source.
All robbery: =12073/23058*100 = 52.359268%
Sexual violence: =2783/6360*100 = 43.757862%
Keep in mind: Do not add all robbery and street robbery: one is a broader category. Do not combine these current counts with an earlier reported percentage.
Selected source rows: https://tallycat01.com/downloads/italy-crime-what-the-numbers-count-selected-rows.csv
Earlier reporting, used only as a provenance lead: https://rmx.news/article/italy-foreigners-commit-43-of-sexual-crimes-60-of-robberies-and-thefts/

5. Rebuild the Ministry's overall report share
Open the official 2024 annual report. Go to printed page 8, which is PDF page 9, under Azione di contrasto. Add the two foreign report counts, 230812 and 56892, and the matching all-citizenship counts, 672208 and 156506. Divide the foreign total by the all-citizenship total. Check the rounded 34.7% statement on printed page 5, PDF page 6.
Foreign reports: 230812 + 56892 = 287704
All reports: 672208 + 156506 = 828714
=287704/828714*100 = 34.716923%
Keep in mind: This combines reports concerning people reported without arrest and reports concerning arrested people. It is neither an arrests-only measure nor the share of all crimes committed.
Ministry report: PDF page 9: https://www.camera.it/temiap/2025/11/18/OCD177-8589.pdf#page=9
Ministry report: PDF page 6: https://www.camera.it/temiap/2025/11/18/OCD177-8589.pdf#page=6

6. Verify the population shares using the final census
Open the census release published 18 December 2025. On page 2, Prospetto 1 gives all residents. On page 6, Prospetto 4 gives foreign residents. For 31 December 2023 use 5253658 and 58971230; for 31 December 2024 use 5371251 and 58943464. Divide foreign residents by all residents for each date.
End of 2023: =5253658/58971230*100 = 8.908849%
End of 2024: =5371251/58943464*100 = 9.112547%
Keep in mind: Both support a rounded 9%. These are final counts, not the older provisional 9.2% baseline or the newer provisional 2026 stock.
Census: total residents on page 2: https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Censimento-e-dinamica-della-popolazione-Anno-2024.pdf#page=2
Census: foreign residents on page 6: https://www.istat.it/wp-content/uploads/2025/12/Censimento-e-dinamica-della-popolazione-Anno-2024.pdf#page=6

7. Read the counting rules and check the population match
Open the attached Istat metadata and find OTHER_DATA_CHARACTERISTIC. Read the passages on a presumed offender being counted each time reported in the year for each offence, and on not following later judicial proceedings. In the foreign-population glossary, inspect Popolazione straniera residente and Straniero dimorante abitualmente. Compare those resident definitions with the citizenship dimensions in the police CSV.
Keep in mind: The police download has no resident-only filter. Missing unknown-category rows are not zeros. Do not divide these police counts by resident population to claim a matched individual offending rate.
Attached counting metadata: https://esploradati.istat.it/METADATA_API/api/getMetadata?metadataSetId=MS_ISTAT_TOPMETA2&reportId=DCCV_AUTVITTPS&nodeId=DW
Foreign-resident glossary: https://demo.istat.it/app/?i=STR
Official dimension codes: https://esploradati.istat.it/SDMXWS/rest/dataflow/IT1/73_230_DF_DCCV_AUTVITTPS_1/1.0?references=all

8. Optionally rerun the full offline check
Download and extract the recalculation ZIP. Read README.txt. From that extracted folder, run python verify_istat.py. It uses only the bundled files and Python's standard library. It writes selected_published_rows.csv and istat_calculations.json, reproducing six category shares and checking each citizenship total against all 16 observed sex/age cells. Compare the four figures above with its output.
python verify_istat.py
Keep in mind: The source manifest records byte counts, SHA-256 hashes, query URLs and the 11 October 2026 retrieval date. A successful reconciliation checks the recovered totals; it does not recover missing residency information or the creator's source.
Download the complete package: https://tallycat01.com/downloads/italy-crime-what-the-numbers-count-recalculate.zip

ADDITIONAL WORKING FILES
Original Istat totals · CSV: https://tallycat01.com/downloads/italy-crime-what-the-numbers-count-raw-totals.csv
Selected source rows · CSV: https://tallycat01.com/downloads/italy-crime-what-the-numbers-count-selected-rows.csv
Calculations and method · TXT: https://tallycat01.com/downloads/italy-crime-what-the-numbers-count-method.txt
Complete recalculation package · ZIP: https://tallycat01.com/downloads/italy-crime-what-the-numbers-count-recalculate.zip

Evidence checked: 11 October 2026
Research and production assisted by AI