£12bn is real. The 57% comparison covers two years
TALLYCAT01 / Evidence over influence
Original Instagram publication: 10 October 2026
Website publication: 10 October 2026
Evidence checked: 10 October 2026

The report supports rounding £11.920bn to £12bn. Its 57% comparison spans 2023 to 2025, not the previous year as Yusuf claimed. Its one-year comparison is about 25%, but different response versions still need reconciliation before that is treated as a fully matched administrative growth rate.

The label concerns the incorrect period attached to the 57% comparison. It does not declare every number in the post false and does not establish intentional deception.

We inspected and preserved the rendered Instagram post, requester-hosted DWP reproductions, relevant official context and the actual page images. We recalculated published numerical cells and compared response versions. This is not individual-level analysis or a DWP response obtained directly by TALLYCAT01.

SOURCES

Y1 / Original Instagram post
Zia Yusuf on Instagram
https://www.instagram.com/zia.yusuf/p/Ddhb3x_hau6/
Exact caption, shared image and displayed publication time
Read and preserved on 10 October 2026. Displayed time: 20 September 2026 at 20:23:51 UTC. Login or access restrictions may prevent an independent reader reopening it.

Y2 / September report including reproduced DWP response FOI2026/83815
Centre for Migration Control; reproduced Department for Work and Pensions response
https://centreformigrationcontrol.com/airo-assets/uploads/research-pdfs/1789944912332-e2d35adf5328.pdf
CMC comparison on PDF pages 2 and 3; DWP expenditure and definitions on PDF pages 6 to 11
Requester-hosted reproduction, not a response obtained directly by TALLYCAT01. Current bytes do not establish which version Yusuf saw when posting. DWP response dated 17 September; file hosting timestamp is later.

Y3 / February article carrying the earlier DWP response images
Centre for Migration Control / Migration Central
https://www.migrationcentral.co.uk/p/10bn-in-universal-credit-given-to
Publication context for the recovered 2024 response pages
Full article access may be limited. The two linked response images are public. Their headers, reference and issue date are cropped.

Y4 / Earlier DWP response page 1
DWP response reproduced by Centre for Migration Control
https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/85caacbb-724b-487b-94d4-000dcf2b0cdc_496x468.png
Employment subtotal and earlier response wording
Cropped requester-hosted page. The printed request date says 5 January without a visible year. The not-in-employment note excludes self-employed people.

Y5 / Earlier DWP response page 2
DWP response reproduced by Centre for Migration Control
https://substack-post-media.s3.amazonaws.com/public/images/3b8a3f55-b146-4478-90b9-bb9ed8b1a663_496x522.png
Overall 2024 total, January to June 2025 total and methodology notes
Cropped requester-hosted page with DWP signature; no complete header, reference or issue date recovered. Direct DWP authentication not obtained.

Y6 / Migrant households receive record £12bn in universal credit
Charles Hymas / The Telegraph, lawfully syndicated by AOL
https://www.aol.co.uk/articles/migrant-households-receive-record-12bn-173651000.html
Matching headline and reporting of roughly a quarter increase against 2024
Current syndication is not an archived copy of the exact bytes seen at publication. It reports the same source chain and is not an independent DWP extract.

Y7 / Written parliamentary answer 74001
Department for Work and Pensions / UK Parliament
https://questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-questions/detail/2025-09-01/74001/
Official explanation of joint awards and inability to apportion payments to individual claimants
Official answer with an explicit distinction between household expenditure and expenditure assigned to a non-CTA individual.

Y8 / Universal Credit statistics: background information and methodology
Department for Work and Pensions
https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/universal-credit-statistics-background-information-and-methodology/universal-credit-statistics-background-information-and-methodology
Official definitions and statistical limitations
Methods for the standard statistics do not supply a restated version of this FOI series.

Y9 / Universal Credit quarterly statistics to 14 May 2026
Department for Work and Pensions
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/universal-credit-quarterly-statistics-29-april-2013-to-14-may-2026/universal-credit-quarterly-statistics-29-april-2013-to-14-may-2026
Context about legacy-benefit transfers and routine release schedule
All-caseload context does not identify the causes of this nationality-group expenditure change. A routine headcount release is not a confirmed release of a matched household spending extract.

IMAGE CREDIT
Zia Yusuf addresses Reform UK, Birmingham NEC
Z979
https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Zia_Yusuf_addresses_Reform_UK_30th_June_2024_-_Birmingham_NEC.jpg
CC0 1.0 https://creativecommons.org/publicdomain/zero/1.0/
Archive context only

Research and production assisted by AI